2016 Round 1 Playoff Picks

Well here we are again; that lovely time of year when 16 hockey teams prepare to head into a grueling two-month grind that they hope will result in them hoisting hockey’s holy grail, the Stanley Cup. As we have seen in the past couple of years, this new bracket format can create some amazing first round matchups and this year will be no exception. The Blues/Blackhawks, Rangers/Penguins, and Kings/Sharks matchups involve teams that surely expect to be playing into the late rounds of the playoffs but will come up well short of that goal. Some of these first round matchups are basically a toss up but here are my best shots at round one picks:

 

Western Conference:

Minnesota @ Dallas: Honestly, 3 weeks ago I would have said the Wild will pull off the upset here. With the always clutch Zach Parise and guys who have gained valuable playoff experience over the past couple of years I felt like the Wild would have the upper hand. They appear to be a team better suited for playoff hockey as proven by first round upsets over Colorado and St. Louis the past two years. However, with the way they closed out the regular season and multiple lulls during it I just don’t think the team has what it takes to get it done this year. I do question the Dallas blue line and goaltending but this and the above combined with a balanced and experienced offensive attack will be enough for Dallas to advance. UPDATE: No Parise for Minny……START THE CAR!! Stars in 5! Key player: Jason Spezza

 

Chicago @ St. Louis: Now this series has to be the ultimate toss up in round one! St. Louis had another amazing regular season, especially when you consider the many key injuries they went through at different points during the year. This series is do or die for more than just these playoffs from a Blues standpoint as there will be fairly major changes if they don’t beat Chicago. It is nearly a certainty that Ken Hitchcock’s job is on the line here. Meanwhile, the defending champion Blackhawks faded a little down the stretch but should that really be alarming in their case? We know what they can do in the Spring and my only real concern is how much fatigue will play a factor with the number of games they’ve played over the past few seasons. All the numbers point to St. Louis in this one but they’re not enough to have me count out Chicago. Blackhawks in 6! Key player: Andrew Ladd

 

Nashville @ Anaheim: You kind of have to feel for Nashville a bit. Over the past 10 years they’ve had some pretty good teams but they always seem to run into a Cup contender early in the playoffs, this year is no exception. The artist formerly known as the Mighty Ducks were far from mighty early in this season but boy did they turn it around and found a way to win their division. That’s quite the adversity to overcome and you know the Ducks are a better team for it and they are hungry! Despite an improved forward group, solid d core and usually reliable goaltending, I don’t think the Preds will outlast a Ducks team with Getzlaf and Kesler down the middle. They’ll give the Ducks a good battle but Nashville will come up short. Ducks in 6! Key player: Ryan Kesler

 

San Jose @ Los Angeles: This series won’t be for the faint of heart and it’s going to take it’s toll on the winner. Many thought the Sharks’ window of opportunity was nearing complete closure, yet with a combination of youthful and veteran players many consider the Sharks as a potential dark horse this year. Thornton and Marleau haven’t slowed down, Pavelski and Couture have become key cogs and Brent Burns is a beast on the backend both literally and figuratively. However, statistically speaking the Kings have been, as usual, one of the best teams in the NHL. They continue to have one of the league’s top goalies, top dmen and a well balanced forward group built for the playoffs and who have been there before. As a wild John Tortorella once said ‘What has Joe Thornton ever won in this league?’ When it comes to the playoffs, nothing Torts and I don’t see that changing in 2016. Kings in 6! Key Player: Tyler Toffoli

 

Eastern Conference:

 

Philadelphia @ Washington: Last season you could see the Washington Capitals were ready to make the move from playoff chokers to Stanley Cup Contender. They very nearly took down the New York Rangers and if they had they might just have made it to the Cup Finals. Some people still get stuck on the past and predict the Capitals will choke but this isn’t your 2010 Capitals that lost to the Habs in round 1. This team is deep at both ends of the ice and may well have a Vezina trophy winner between the pipes. The Flyers will give the Capitals a battle but when the Giroux line is kept in check, you won’t see much life from Philly. Caps in 5! Key player: Mike Richards (not on the scoresheet)

 

New York Rangers @ Pittsburgh: Two months ago this was an easy pick, now its much tougher. Two months ago, I was taking the Rangers to win this series. Since then though Pittsburgh has showed they are to be taken seriously. Mike Sullivan has turned this team around big time and they are playing some of the best hockey in the league heading into the playoffs with a motivated Sidney Crosby leading the way. Both teams are looking a little banged up but I see the injuries to the Rangers blueline with the potential to hurt the most. Just can’t help but go with the hot hand, the hot superstar and the home team. Penguins in 7. Key player: Patrick Hornqvist

 

New York Islanders @ Florida: This is another toss up, are the Panthers for real? Is it too much of a Cinderella story? Are they too young? Is Jagr too old? So many questions to be answered in the next two weeks. Common sense says the Panthers finished much better, are healthier and have the veteran goalie but again, I’m not going with common sense. The gut says John Tavares is ready for a big series win and lets not forget the Isles gave the Caps all they could handle last Spring. Something tells me that beat up or not the Islanders led by Tavares are poised to take another step forward. Islanders in 6! Key Player: John Tavares

 

Detroit @ Tampa Bay: There are a few teams really crippling their way into the playoffs. The Lightning would surely be in that group. Last years Eastern Conference Champs were poised to take another run at the Cup but some of those key injuries has them ripe for the upset. The Wings window of opportunity has to be closing but then again this is their 25^th straight playoff appearance. With Datsyuk likely heading back to Russia next season, the Wings may have extra motivation to make one last big run. Regardless of the injuries, John Cooper’s law says he’ll have enough guys going to get past the Wings and get most everyone healthy for another trip to the conference finals. Bolts in 6. Key Player: Victor Hedman

Let us know who YOU have in round! GO HOCKEY GO! Avs are out…….

@poleary19

 

 

My Advice to a Hockey Legend and a Hockey Hero

Before I plunge into the meat of this article I feel it will pay dividends to briefly explain the above photo. It took place just outside of the Avalanche dressing room at the Pepsi Center where the Avs were set to face off against the Winnipeg Jets in about an hours time. For those of you who are unaware, I am the skinny kid wearing the Avalanche shirt;the man in the middle is of course Patrick Roy and the man on the other side is my father. If you don’t recognize the flag on my dad’s shirt, it’s the flag of Newfoundland and Labrador a province in Atlantic Canada many miles away from Denver, Colorado.

From a very young age I fell in love with hockey and as you may see, I fell in love with the Colorado Avalanche. If you used the information above to estimate the distance between Colorado and Newfoundland you’d have likely come to the conclusion that there is quite a time difference. You would be correct, 3 and a half hours to be precise. Yes, this means a 7 pm home game would start at 1030 pm NL time. This wasn’t an ideal time for an elementary or junior high aged kid but I did what it took to catch the games even if it meant going to bed at 8 and my parents waking me for puck drop.

The Avs were and always will be my team. Joe Sakic, Peter Forsberg, Ray Bourque and of course Patrick Roy will always be my most beloved heroes. This is why the above picture will always be one of the greatest moments of my life. Patrick Roy the oft portrayed cocky, brash and hotheaded hockey legend would take a few minutes for a picture and sign an autograph for a long time fan who travelled a distance to live a dream. However, the media portrayals of St.Patrick over the years couldn’t be further from the truth. He took a significant amount of time out of his pregame preparation for yes a photo-op and a couple of autographs, but to also talk to us; asking questions, answering questions and telling us stories about his career. He was soft spoken, sincere and was in no rush to end the meeting. After all these years it was greatly refreshing to see that though a fiery competitor on the ice, Patrick was a gentleman off the ice. I could never thank Patrick enough for that moment and those memories.

With all that said, you must be wondering what I’m getting at here? Well in this age of social media sports fans can communicate like never before. Fans from all around the world can discuss their favorite team at anytime with ease. With this accessibility you tend to ‘see it all.’ You see the diehard, the bandwagoners, the homers and the haters and you see them all in spats with each other. You have some fans whose team does no wrong no matter what; others who can’t see anything positive at all. I don’t see the need to criticize how a fan chooses to support their team. If you think its 100% positivity all the time, fine and if you tend to see the glass half empty all the time, your call. Personally, I like to call it as I see it. Love a player or hate a player, in my mind that player has a job to do and if he’s doing it he’ll get a tap on the back, if he’s not, I’m going to be on his back. This doesn’t mean my support has wavered; that will never happen, I’m an Avs fan through thick and thin but it wouldn’t seem real if I saw eye to eye with players, coaches and management at every turn.

Now perhaps you are starting to put things together and see where I’m going with this. If Patrick Roy never wins another game behind the Avalanche bench, he’ll still be a hero in my books and the greatest big game goaltender in NHL history. However, though he has done many great things since stepping behind the Avalanche bench, there are some things I can’t help but question.

Now before I get into my concerns with some of the decisions behind the bench, I can’t emphasize enough the challenges one must face to coach in the NHL. It’s easy to forget that though Roy has been a household name since the 80’s, he’s still as green as an NHL coach as Nathan Mackinnon is an NHL player. No matter how many years you punch in junior hockey or the American Hockey League; it’s not the NHL.

Similarly to relative inexperience, look who Roy is up against in the Central Division. Take a minute to Google the resumes of Quenneville, Maurice, Hitchcock, Ruff and Laviolette if you can’t recall how long they’ve been around or how successful their careers have been. They have had time to live and learn in the greatest league in the world; Roy deserves a chance to do the same.

Another challenge facing a coach in the NHL is of course the players at their disposal. While Roy and the Avs have some great young talent, most fans would agree there are a few players on the roster that may not be everyday NHLers. The Avs could benefit from a couple of upgrades; most notably on defense but it appears management are exercising a plan of patience in an attempt to have everything come together at the right time. I do understand that thought process and believe to an extent they are right in that the Avs ‘window of opportunity’ hasn’t opened yet. Though they must be true to that process and find a fix from within rather than make shake-up trades that they’ll regret down the road.

OK, so now you are asking ‘What would he suggest if he could advise Patrick Roy?’ I know, you’re actually asking ‘what makes him think he could have advice for an NHL coach?’ I surely can appreciate you asking the latter but I’ll answer the former.

– Find line combinations and stick with them. The line shifting gets to be too much. No NHL club has seen as many different line combinations as the Avalanche over the past three seasons. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything like this in my days of watching hockey. From week to week, game to game, period to period the players don’t know who they’ll be playing with or even where they’ll be playing. Consistency is a huge thing for a pro hockey player; they have routines on and off the ice. I can’t imagine finding your groove is easy when moving from centre to wing and from linemate to linemate. He needs to put lines together, stick with them for an extended period of time and allow players to find chemisty.

– I can appreciate the current idea of loading up the top line with Landeskog, Mackinnon and Duchene but that really thins out the next three lines you plan on rolling. Perhaps it worked last night but how well will it work against central division opponents? I like the idea of putting Mackinnon and Duchene together a couple of times a period and when you’re looking for a goal. As he stated in an interview yesterday with TSN, it was a strategy once used with Forsberg and Sakic and used successfully. It wasn’t a line combo but every now and then the duo would get thrown out in a line mismatch and the Avs would benefit. Doing it this way doesn’t mess with the depth they had been hoping to achieve down the lineup coming into the season.

– Don’t over emphasize shot blocking. Shot blocking has become a huge part of the game and we have seen a transition from shot blocking specialists to everyone being willing to take one for the team. Shot blocking can be huge but it needs to be natural and not a game plan. Too often in the early stages of this season have Avs players been committing to a shot block and taking themselves out of the play. When on all fours you are at the mercy of your opponent and this has resulted in some goals against for the Avs this year. Stay on your feet, stick with your man and if you can block the shot great; if not your goalie should be there for you and you stay with the man.

– Don’t over think the game. Patrick Roy is calculated and I can only imagine his preparation for games. When things are not going right you tend to start looking for solutions when perhaps the best solution is going back to basics. When the Avs struggle to score goals they need to strip it down and keep things simple. Those first two games of the season the Avs were relentless on the attack, getting pucks on net and getting bodies to the net. Those were arguably the best two efforts of the season minus that third period against Minny. Shots, traffic and rebounds should be the mantra for the Avalanche. Get to the dirty areas and make things happen.

– Remember to pay attention to detail. In addition to keeping it simple, when you over think things you tend to get away from the little things that win you hockey games. The Avalanche need to focus on the faceoff dot, too many big draws lost and thus possession lost; no better way to start a PP or PK than with a faceoff win. Likewise, more battles need to be won. There are times when the team seems too easy to play against. In the tough Western Conference you have to earn your ice and at times the compete level in loose puck battles is not high enough. Last but not least, puck management in our own end has to improve. You can have the most skilled players in the world up front but it’s meaningless if you can’t move the puck up to them. The struggles coming out of the Colorado end have been well documented and have to improve in order for the record to improve. Passes need to be cleaner, the breakout needs more flow and there has to be more composure. Too many times the puck is being turned over in the defensive zone and it wears on everyone as the game goes on.

– Finally, the powerplay needs to improve. Too many times has a powerplay that could have tied a game or extended a lead come up with nothing and shifted momentum to the opponent. Not surprisingly, most of the above could be applied to the Colorado powerplay. Winning the opening draw gives you crucial possession. Winning the battles, especially in puck retrieval, gets you possession and saves time lost chasing the puck down the ice. Shooting the puck and getting bodies to the front of the net gives you the chance to score through a screen, create a deflection or bury a rebound. The look for the one-timer on the powerplay has become redundant for most NHL teams and with guys like Barrie and Johnson on the point the Avs need to look for a quick wrister from the point for a screen, tip or rebound. If you don’t shoot, you won’t score. Perhaps the strategy used in 13/14 with a give and go down low followed by a jam play is something that can be tried again? How many powerplay goals did Joe Sakic score or create from the half boards? Maybe Mackinnon or Duchene could be quarterbacking from there? Something there I think many NHL teams are missing.

Well there you have it, my coaching advice for a Hockey Hall of Famer and a Jack Adams award winner. Don’t worry, that sounds as silly to me as it does to you but perhaps some of that stuff just might work!

Regardless of what happens with the Avalanche on this road trip or this season or next year, etc. I’ll be watching games and cheering them on. Likewise, no matter what Roy does this year or next or down the road, I’ll always be a fan. I believe he is a better coach than the results have shown and that he’ll get better again as he gains more experience behind the bench in the big leagues. At the end of the day, I may not agree with every decision he makes but I know he’s doing everything he can to find ways to win hockey games. And just because I may disagree with him doesn’t change the fact that the Avs are my team and Patrick Roy is one of my heroes.

Follow me on Twitter @poleary19

Let’s Drop the Puck!: 2016 NHL Predictions

Ohhh Babyyyy it’s that time of year again! Ohh Baby. For Sure. That’s right folks, tonight it all begins again! The 9 month grind for the greatest trophy in all of sports starts tonight. Of course whenever the NHL season is set to get underway the looming questions are who is going to make the playoffs and then who is going to win it all in June? Most of the big stories this offseason were not particularly ones the NHL wants to focus on. What they prefer we focus on would be the on ice stories such as McDavid’s debut, Babcock’s battle in Toronto, and Kessel’s arrival in Pittsburgh. When it’s all said and done will any of those stories play any role in determining the next Stanley Cup winner? I don’t think so!

Looking back on last year’s October predictions, I was able to nail both division winners in the West but just four of the 8 teams that made the postseason. In the East I missed on both division winners but hit on 5 of the 8 playoff teams. In the end, I predicted a Chicago/Pittsburgh Cup final and most importantly nailed the Blackhawks as Stanley Cup Champs! All in all I’ll take that as a win.

Now to get on with the show; here are my 2016 NHL standings predictions:

Western Conference:
1. Anaheim Ducks (Division winner)
2. Chicago Blackhawks (Division winner)
3. St.Louis Blues
4. Calgary Flames
5. Minnesota Wild
6. Dallas Stars (wildcard)
7. Colorado Avalanche (wildcard)
8. Los Angeles Kings
———————-
9. Winnipeg Jets
10. Nashville Predators
11. San Jose Sharks
12. Vancouver Canucks
13. Edmonton Oilers
14. Arizona Coyotes

Eastern Conference:
1. Tampa Bay Lightning (Division winner)
2. Montreal Canadiens
3. New York Rangers (Division winner)
4. New York Islanders
5. Washington Captials
6. Pittsburgh Penguins (Wildcard)
7. Detroit Red Wings
8. Columbus BlueJackets (Wildcard)
———————
9. Ottawa Senators
10. Florida Panthers
11. Boston Bruins
12. Buffalo Sabres
13. Philadelphia Flyers
14. Toronto Maple Leafs
15. Carolina Hurricanes
16. New Jersey Devils

Honestly, once we get to the playoffs, the only teams I see with a realistic chance of winning hockey’s Holy Grail would be Anaheim, Chicago, Minnesota, St.Louis, Tampa Bay, the New York Rangers and Washington. Easyyy Montreal fans, I believe with Price in net you’ll have a chance to beat anyone but I don’t think the rest of the team is good enough to push through all the above Eastern Conference teams.

In today’s NHL I cannot predict a team to reach the finals in back to back seasons. I feel the wear and tear on the body after one trip to the final will take its toll the following spring. The Blackhawks and Lightning may very well appear to be the best bets to play again in June but because of this reason I will not be picking either of them.

Instead, I will take the Ducks who almost did it last year and have the benefit of playing most of their games in maybe the weakest division in the League, to win the West. The Ducks are very deep upfront and while young on the backend, they can and I’m sure will address this before the trade deadline. Coming out of the East I’ll take the Rangers who similarly to Anaheim just missed out on another trip to the finals last year. The Rangers defence is as good as it gets in this league; they have King Hank in net and will just need some timely scoring to get them there. In the end though, it’ll be the big one-two punch of Getzlaf and Kesler to push the Ducks to their second Cup in franchise history.

2016 Stanley Cup Champion: Anaheim Ducks

Conn Smythe Winner: Corey Perry

Last year my award predictions went way south as my only correct prediction was Carey Price for the Vezina. I guess this year there’s nowhere to go but up!

Art Ross Trophy: Sidney Crosby

Rocket Richard Trophy: Alex Ovechkin

Hart Trophy: John Tavares

Norris Trophy: Duncan Keith

Vezina Trophy: Carey Price

Jack Adams Trophy: Lindy Ruff

Calder Trophy: Connor McDavid

There you have it! Let the puck drop and feel free to share your opinion!!

Follow me on Twitter @poleary19

2015 Stanley Cup Final: And the winner is…….

‘The Stanley Cup is all shined up and ready to go!’ I feel like that’s how I kick off every Stanley Cup Final preview blog and well this year won’t be any different! It’s a bitter sweet time of year as there is little as exciting as the Cup finals whether your team is playing or not, but it also signifies the final two weeks of the hockey season. With the Lightning and Blackhawks set to take to the ice tonight for game 1, here is my quick preview of this series and who wins (time was tight so there will be little specific stats and numbers; I know , I know, getting slack!).

First off, I have to give the Hawks the advantage up front. I have been saying all along there’s just no one with top to bottom depth like Chicago. The Bolts rely heavily on their top two lines but get little secondary offense from lines 3 and 4. It’ll be very interesting to see how Cooper handles his match up with the Kane/Toews/Saad line assuming it will be intact to start the final. In theory, he has to either try going with the triplet line or the Stamkos lines but I’m not sure either can handle the task. Over the course of a 7 game series, the Hawks have to feel confident that no one can match them in production from lines 3 and 4.

On the backend, you would tend to think the Lightning as a group would be favored but after seeing what the Big 4 in Chicago did against Anaheim, I can’t go against them! Keith can play all night long and he can handle the speed of the Bolts. Seabrook, Oduya and Hjalmersson may have more difficulty with a fast Tampa forward group but as of now I think as a group they can handle it. The Bolts often dress 7 defenseman and the group will easily see its toughest test of the postseason. Hedman and Stralman have been great this season and will surely get the Kane/Toews assignment. Even if those two slow down Chicago’s clutch duo; Carle, Coburn and the remainder of the crew will be in tough dealing with Hossa, Richards, Shaw, Sharp, Vermette, Bickell etc on a regular basis.

Between the pipes both tenders have had their ups and downs these playoffs but both have shown great resiliency in getting the job done. Though Crawford is a Stanley Cup champion, I still give Bishop the edge here. This will be the most dynamic offense Bishop will have seen in these playoffs and he must step up his game if Tampa is to have a chance. Crawford however, doesn’t have to be great, just good enough. The most important thing for Crawford is staying composed; when he gets rubbed or roughed up a bit he tends to lose his cool or is on the edge of losing it. If I were the Lightning I would surely crowd the crease and try to get under his skin early.

There was once a time where great special teams were almost a requirement to win a Stanley Cup; in recent years it appears to have become of lesser importance. If you watch a lot of teams play, in many cases the power play is a struggle. I don’t know if this is because penalty killing in the league has become so strong across the board or coaches are over thinking their power play. Either way, nowadays whichever team can figure out their power play first has the better chance to succeed. Tampa’s best chance at winning this series is to continue to connect at their recent rate of around 35%.

Both of these teams can play a fast paced game that is a thrill to watch but I am unsure that Tampa will be interested in playing a run and gun game with Chicago. I look back to the way they played games 5 and 7 against New York where they played tight defense and waited for a Ranger breakdown to capitalize on and made it count. I think they’ll try to do the same thing with Chicago but with some of the finishers the Hawks have it will be tougher to pull off.

With all the components mentioned above and some not mentioned taken into consideration, I have to take the CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS to win the Stanley Cup (Just as I did in my preseason prediction blog!!!) in 6 games! They have too much depth and too much experience for the Bolts to handle this year. Also, Duncan Keith will join Kane and Toews as a Conn Smythe Trophy winner!

@poleary19

First Round Predictions: Who Ya Got?!

When the NHL season is set to begin in early October, we all look ahead to what is seemingly a long, long road to the Stanley Cup playoffs. Now, as winter here in Newfoundland reluctantly begins to ‘break up,’ we have seen the NHL season come and go in a flash. When it all begins, the importance of each game is taken for granted by most. Some will say ‘it’s only one game,’ others will say ‘it’s still November, a lot of hockey left yet.’ While those statements may be accurate, one thing is for certain, every one of the 82 games played matters. October is as important as April and April is as important December. It came down to game 82 for Pittsburgh and Boston but both know it wasn’t their performances in that game that determined their fate. My Colorado Avalanche; coming off a season to remember, stumbled, no fell out of the gate. Despite far better performance from December/January on, they couldn’t recover from a terrible October/November. Chalk it up as lessons learned; the hard way for most that over the course of a 7 month marathon, every second determines your position at the finish line.

Today, 14 teams are clearing their locker room stalls while the other 16 are likely taking a day off for what they hope will be the last time until sometime in mid June. Wednesday, the second season begins; a season where the hits are harder, the goals are bigger and the saves more important. If every game counts in the regular season, every second counts in the playoffs. This time of the year is for the mentally tough, the physically strong and those who refuse to look for shortcuts.

The first round of the playoffs has become perhaps the most fun two weeks of the season for hockey fans. A league that faces its share of criticism has truly hit a home run with the new playoff bracket. There is no longer the first round of yesteryear when nearly every series had a clear cut favorite and upsets were less common. Here in 2015, it is difficult to determine who would be upsetting who. I’ve spent a good portion of the past day or two analyzing the matchups to make my first round picks and while there are a couple I have great confidence in, most I have been back and forth on. This is the playoffs though, so I felt for the tough calls I had no choice but to go with my gut.

Western Conference:

Anaheim vs. Winnipeg: Picking this series came down to two main things; the Ducks one-two punch down the middle with Getzlaf and Kesler against what I consider to be a favorable age to the Jets in all around depth. Even with the Ducks star power up front and the addition of Kesler; I still feel that from top to bottom, forwards and defense, the Jets are a deeper hockey club. There may be goaltending questions on both sides and I wouldn’t be surprised to see 4 goalies before this series is over. I’m not even sure the Ducks have home ice advantage in this series because of the added importance of their home games knowing what the MTS centre atmosphere will be like. The Jets will just wear the Ducks defense down as this series goes on; the team is made for playoff hockey. Keep an eye on Andrew Ladd in this one, he’s been waiting awhile to get back to the playoffs and will likely be a force. My money says Winnipeg in 6!

Vancouver vs. Calgary: Another series that had me tossing and turning and I even had some extra time to think about this one. Experience against youth is the obvious storyline of this one with the Canucks not quite being done yet and the Flames perhaps a little ahead of their time. Again, I let depth be the deciding factor and feel the Canucks have more guys who will make the difference both up front and on the blue line. The Flames maybe the hardest working team in the NHL and that’s a team feared by everyone but I feel the Canucks will be too much over the course of a 7 game series. Watch for Dan Hamhuis to be a big player for the Canucks in this series. Vancouver in 6! But I warn you Vancouver; don’t let this series go 7!

St. Louis vs. Minnesota: Two teams desperate for a break in the playoffs but yet again neither get one. Last year the Wild had to play an amazing 7 games series with the Avalanche before running into a Chicago team that put them out for the second straight year. The Blues have had high hopes in each of the past 2 seasons yet have drawn the Kings and Blackhawks respectfully in round one. The Wild won’t be much easier of a draw for the blues. Parise, Suter, Koivu, Pominville and some of the young guns are really suited for playoff hockey. However, the additions of Thomas Vanek and Chris Stewart will not compliment the above cast in this series. Thus, this gives the Blues the edge in, you guessed it, the depth department with the likes of Tarasenko, Steen, Oshie, Schwartz, Stastny, and Backes, not to mention a stronger defense core. Paul Stastny’s offseason contract will start to really show its worth for the Blues in this series. It’ll be one of the best series and the Blues will take it in 7!

Nashville vs. Chicago: With all due respect to the Nashville Predators, this one was a no brainer for me. From top to bottom the Hawks are a better team regardless of Patty Kane being out of the lineup. It sounds as though Kane could even play as early as Wednesday but I’d be in no rush to get him into this series, Captain Serious will lead his team to round 2. I have little faith in Mike Ribeiro as a number 1 centre in the post season and unless Pekka Rinne stands on his head, it’ll be Chicago in 5!

Eastern Conference:

New York Rangers vs. Pittsburgh: The Penguins limped into the playoffs and now they’ll pay the price as they matchup with the President’s trophy winners. I expect Sidney Crosby will play some of the best hockey we’ve seen from him in years but it won’t be enough to handle a Rangers team that seemingly has it all. My biggest question on the Rangers is which Rick Nash will we see in these playoffs? I’ve got a feeling it could be the same guy we saw last spring, but it won’t slow the rangers in this one. I suggest looking up Kevin Hayes before this one, he’s gonna have a playoff. I’ll take the Rangers in 5 with big changes to come over the summer in Pittsburgh.

Washington vs. New York Islanders: I’ve been preaching this for a few months and I won’t stop now, the Capitals are a team to be feared in the Eastern Conference. They can play defense, lean on teams, have the best scorer and perhaps the best passer in the NHL, and quietly have one of the league’s best goaltenders in Braden Holtby. I’m as surprised as anyone to pick Ovechkin over Tavares but it’s all about the supporting cast and I feel that Ovie’s team is better built for the playoffs. Ovechkin and Tavares will do their thing but I think it’ll be the Brouwers, Wards, Fehrs, etc to make the difference in this season; they along with Holtby of course. Caps in 6!

Montreal vs. Ottawa: Boy this one is such a difficult call! On one hand you have the best goalie in the NHL but on the other you have the hottest goalie in the NHL. On one hand you have a Norris trophy winning defensemen and on the other hand you a Norris Trophy winning defensemen! You have two teams with young forward groups with a ton of energy just waiting to explode. What is Pacioretty’s status for the series? Word is he is likely to be ready for game 1 or 2, that is crucial for the Habs. My mind says the Sens can’t keep this ride going against the Habs and Price. Montreal has home ice and with a 7 game series have the ability to look at the tape on Hammond and break him down. Though, my gut says the Sens can still pull it off. They have depth up front and young guys who’ve been playing in seventh games since early March. Mark Stone has proven to be some kind of two way player with a gift to be clutch and more importantly want to be clutch. The key for Ottawa will be Bobby Ryan who really slumped down the stretch but who has shown signs of a breakout as of late, he’ll need to produce for the Sens to pull it off. Sens in 6 with A LOT of OVERTIME.

Tampa Bay vs. Detroit: The Wings really struggled down the stretch and I believe will continue to struggle with a fast and potent Lightening team. Mike Babcock’s coaching has the potential to make this thing interesting but with questionable goaltending, I don’t think the Wings have the roster to match the Bolts. Stamkos and company remember last season’s first round exit all too well but with Bishop between the pipes this time, they are ready to make a push. Babcock will be singing Victor Hedman’s praises after this one. Lightning in 5!

@poleary19

Toronto Turmoil: Leaf Fans Have Every Right to be Frustrated!

As a fan of the Colorado Avalanche ultimately since their relocation to Denver from Quebec City, I’ve had it pretty good as a hockey fan. From 1996-2004, the Avalanche won two Stanley Cups and went to the Western Conference Finals on 4 other occasions. I admit, during those years myself and other fans of the Avalanche were spoiled. However, since the lockout of 2005, things have been rocky in the mile high city (pun intended). In those seasons the Avalanche made the playoffs four times and won just two playoff series. Those hard times have given me a much greater appreciation for what I witnessed in the late 90’s/early 00’s, while also giving me the sense to truly take in the current growth of today’s team into what I hope will be another powerhouse. This past near 20 years of experience has also given me quite an opinion on the current situation in Toronto between the Maple Leafs and their fans.

Thus far this season there have been a couple occasions where a fan of the Maple Leafs has tossed a jersey on the ice during a game as a way of voicing his or her displeasure for the team’s performance on the ice. This has led to much debate around the hockey world with many high profile hockey people giving their thoughts on the matter. Many in the Maple Leafs dressing room seem to believe that it is not only disrespectful to the players on the current team but to the legends who have worn the Maple Leaf on their chest in the past. I’m not going to condone the throwing of anything on to the ice during a game other than a hat following a hat-trick but if that’s what a fan thinks is necessary to make a point of their frustration of both on and off ice performance, I greatly respect it!

I am not the kind of fan that will defend my team’s performance no matter how bad it is. If my team doesn’t give 100%, I call them on it. If any player seems to be mailing it in, I say sit them on the bench until they show they want to win. Patrick Roy is one of my idols but I OFTEN disagree with his decisions behind the bench and won’t give him a free pass just because he is Patrick Roy. I am one fan of this team who has and will continue to spend a great deal of time and money supporting the team and players, thus it is my belief that I can boo or question the team when the effort isn’t there. I’ll never turn my back on the team and all I ask is that the players on the ice show 100% effort night in and night out and those in the front office do their best to put the best possible line-up on the ice. I belief this is the thought process of most sports fans, Toronto Maple Leaf fans included.

The number of Leaf fans living who witnessed their last Stanley Cup win are few and far between and then there are many fans who have been born post 1967 who have never witnessed their favorite team hoist the Cup. In that time, the 70’s and 80’s weren’t good, the 90’s and early 2000’s weren’t too bad with a few Conference Finals appearances and since 2004 things have been terrible. I have many friends who are Maple Leafs fans and they have stuck with the team in the good times and bad but they have grown understandably frustrated with performance on the ice and in the front office. The Toronto Maple Leafs are worth over 1 billion dollars, despite some of the highest ticket prices in the NHL, the Air Canada Centre in always sold out and even at the smallest gathering anywhere in Canada you would be hard pressed not to see someone wearing something with a blue maple leaf logo. Still, even with all that money and support, this team hasn’t won a championship since 1967. Only the Chicago Cubs come to mind as a big time sports club with such a long championship drought.

So if the shoe were on the other foot, would Dave Nonis, Randy Carlyle, Dion Phaneuf and the ‘suits’ of MLSE boo the team with 2 minutes to go in a game where they trail the worst team in the NHL by 5 goals? I’d like to ask one of them! It’s not about winning and losing, it’s about a consistent effort and that hasn’t been there. I think back to 2013 when the Leafs lost to Boston in that heartbreaking game 7. Sure, the fans were disappointed and questioned some decisions during that collapse but at the end of the day they took a great deal of pride in the fact their team gave the eventual Eastern Conference Champions everything they could handle in that series. Just another example of how fans just want to know their team gave it their all, no matter the end result.

As for the jersey tossing being ‘disrespectful’ to the past greats who have worn the Maple Leafs jersey, I would say whoever it was that threw the jersey has a greater knowledge and appreciation for the history of the team than 90 percent of its current roster. A similarity between players and fans is their desire for their team to hoist the Stanley Cup but the difference is the fan’s Cup desire will always involve one team, the players often does not. No doubt each Maple Leaf player wants to win a Cup in Toronto this season, but next year? They could be on any one of the other 29 teams and could care less if the Leafs win a Cup. It’s the fan who is there year after year; witnessing every high and low yet never changes their colors. It’s the fan who remembers Mats Sundin’s 500th goal in OT, Dougie GILMOUR’s OT wraparound against St.Louis, and so many of the little moments that have happened in the team’s history. The one’s disrespecting the legends of the past are the guys giving less than 100% on the ice or in the front office. Perhaps they should be given a history lesson on the Shayne Corson’s, Darcy Tucker’s, Gary Roberts’, Dave Williams’, etc of the past who played as though anything less than 110 percent was unacceptable.

To those who argue that Toronto is a tough place to play hockey; it’s only as tough as you make it! It’s all a part of the job, as soon as a player signs that multi-million dollar contract he has agreed to deal with all the ups and downs that come with the job. No job is perfect; it seems professional athlete included but if part of your job is fielding questions after a game for 15 minutes, you signed up for it, do it. When a player gets saucy with a reporter during a pre or postgame interview, sure it might be funny but everyone easily forgets that the reporter is just doing his or her job. I’m sure they don’t like getting embarrassed on live TV, but it’s part of their job and they have to do it. I should work the same for the players. Also, the way I see it, I’d rather play hockey in a city where people actually care about the team than in a place where they don’t even know a team exists. Take the good with the bad, do your job and be grateful for having a chance to play the game so many dream of playing but so few ever get the chance to.

As for the player’s ‘dig’ at the fans following the game on Thursday by not doing the traditional salute before exiting the ice, that was far more disrespectful than a jersey toss. What an example of biting the hand that feeds you! Such a distasteful move, that in my opinion sums up the problem in Toronto; lack of leadership. If you’re upset with how your fans have been treating you, use that as motivation to play better and I’m sure you’ll be treated better, don’t win your first game in a week and give your supporters the equivalent of the middle finger. Tim Leiweke publically stated the Maple Leafs have major character issues in the offseason and he was clearly stating the truth.

To summarize; after going through the past 45 plus years, the fans of the Maple Leafs have every right to show their frustration with the organization and if it takes throwing a jersey on the ice, wearing a paper bag over their head or booing the team to get everyone’s attention then so be it. If I were a fan after all these years, I’d have been tempted to toss my seat on the ice late in Tuesday’s game! The fans have built this organization and made it one of the top teams financially in all of sports. It’s time those who have been cashing the cheques look after the many people whose money makes up a good portion of the account they come from. Leaf fans deserve better and should starting making noise to ensure they get it!

@poleary19

Peter Forsberg: Legendary Impact On and Off the Ice

‘Forsberg shoots, Forsberg scores!!!’ were words commonly heard in NHL arenas around North America from the mid 90’s to mid 2000’s and various other arenas in the world starting in the early 90’s. Those words were also often heard some 4500 kms from Forsberg’s hometown of Ornskoldsvik, Sweden and 5500 kms from his NHL home of Denver, in the small town of Adam’s Cove, Newfoundland and Labrador. It was in the kitchen while playing mini stick hockey, on a small strip of pavement playing road hockey or playing ball hockey at school, I would shout those words. As a kid (and maybe still as an adult), 95% percent of the time I would pretend to be Forsberg while playing any hockey, copying his famous shootout goal or his commonly used wraparound-top shelf move.

Of all the hockey superstars in the world, many of whom were Canadian; it was the Swede Forsberg, playing far away in Colorado who would be my hockey hero. I honestly feel for many east coast hockey fans because of the little exposure to Forsberg on this end of the continent. Between the time difference and the media focus on Toronto and Montreal, Forsberg was maybe lesser known than he deserved to be. Lucky for me at the time, the Avalanche were a powerhouse and thus got a little more national coverage. Surely when they were on my TV, I’d be staying up late to watch them and during the playoffs all their games would be televised so I didn’t have to miss one! I may have gone to school a little tired with games often not ending until 130 or 2 am but watching the Avs and Forsberg was more than worth it.

The playoffs were Peter’s bread and butter and perhaps I didn’t realize it at the time but looking back on it now it was a true privilege to watch him perform. Of course the highlight packages show his amazing skill and play making ability but they don’t do justice to the way he played in those games. Forsberg had all the skill in the world but it was his competitive nature that was so endearing. Every time he stepped on the ice he made something happen and you could feel the excitement in the building. For hockey fans of the current era, he could protect the puck and see the ice like Sidney Crosby, pass the puck like Joe Thornton and yet still be as gritty as a Jarome Iginla circa 2004 or Ryan Kesler circa 2011. However for Forsberg the grit and physicality was there shift in and shift out, year in and year out. He played the ‘Canadian way’ as good as anyone born north of the border and helped change how many people looked at Swedish hockey players. I often think back to his playoff battles with Derian Hatcher in the late 90’s; the abuse Forsberg took in that ‘dead puck era’ was just incredible but he would just keep coming back for more.

If you have the chance to watch a classic game from the late 90’s or early 00’s, it would really put Forsberg’s point production into perspective. Clutching, grabbing, hooking, interference were all ultimately fair game and goalie gear wasn’t exactly shrinking, yet Forsberg still managed six ,85 plus point seasons from 1995 to 2004 while playing the full schedule just once in that span. In the postseason, the games got tougher and Forsberg got that much better, twice leading the playoffs in scoring without even reaching the Stanley Cup Finals. He is the only person who can lay claim to that feat since the 1985-1986 season.

Perhaps the saddest part of looking back on Forsberg’s career is how great it could have been if he had been able to stay healthy. However, it wouldn’t be Peter’s style to look at it like that and it isn’t mine either. I prefer to be taken aback by what he was able to accomplish in such a short period of time: 2 Stanley Cups, 2 Olympic gold medals, 2 world Championships, a Hart trophy as NHL MVP and now at 41 years old a member of the Hockey Hall of Fame. The way he pulled out all the stops to try and get back on the ice showed just how much he loved the game and it will always be something that I’ll admire.

When looking at his statistics, resume and highlights it’s easy to see how Forsberg could be a hero for a young kid but those were just a bonus to me. It was Forsberg’s style on and off the ice that I was drawn to. It’s your heroes in life that teach you the many attributes that you wish to use to build yourself as a person. Peter Forsberg taught me to compete every single shift, battle no matter the circumstance, be a team player, never give up and always be humble. These lessons weren’t about hockey but about life itself. I thank Peter Forsberg for the impact he has had on my life and I imagine so many others. He is most deserving of this induction and will take his rightful seat in hockey’s house of legends.There will never be another Peter Forsberg. Thanks again Foppa and never forget; real men don’t need spleens.

Follow me on twitter @poleary19

An Avalanche of Problems

To be clear, being a true fan of a hockey team does not mean you have to be positive 100 percent of the time. After a 1-4-1 start to the season, I have seen and even made tweets expressing my disappointment with the team’s performance at times. In response, I have seen tweets accusing the ‘panicking’ fans of being ‘fair-weather’ fans. I have been a fan of this team basically since their beginning and just as I’ve praised them for the good times, I’ll knock them for the bad! That’s the right of a hockey fan! A fair-weather fan is there in the good times, gone in the bad. I was wearing an Avs hat or Jersey from 96-06 and was still wearing them from 2010-2013! I love this team but it doesn’t mean I’m going to look at them through rose colored glasses, things have not been good to start this season and we need to look to righting the ship sooner rather than later!

First off, some guys haven’t been bringing the hard hat to games. Perhaps, a team with so much skill and talent didn’t realize it still had to get its hands dirty to compete in this league. We haven’t been a difficult team to play this season and that’s the first thing that needs to change. Many nights, Gabe Landeskog has been invisible! He’s the captain of the ship and needs to light the fire. He has much more to give and I hope Patrick can light a fire under him soon so he can lead by example!

Speaking of Patrick, he needs to preach simplicity right now! It took until the 58th or 59th minute for the team to final realize that putting pucks on net and going to the net works. It should be no surprise that it was Iggy who made that play. With the offensive struggles we have now, the strategy should be simple: shots and traffic. A garbage goal and a highlight reel goal look the same on the score sheet. At least he is slowly working his way to what should be the lines. Tonight Tanguay went with Iginla and Duchene and while that looked ok, I believe the end result will have to be Duchene and O’Reilly reunited along with Iginla. I understand he’s trying to protect Mackinnon with O’Reilly but it’s not worth splitting a dangerous duo. Let Tanguay play with Mack and Landy , Mcginn/Mitchell/Briere and Talbot/Cliché/Mcleod. I have confidence Patty will get it all under control but sometimes he over thinks it.

On that thought, the Powerplay has been dismal! It was improved tonight in terms of zone time but still no results. Again, need to simplify things. Gain the zone, set up, get a man in front and put pucks to the net. No need to even shoot to score, just get pucks on net and look for tips, rebounds, whatever it takes. May also need to consider getting Mitchell out there for the PP starting faceoff, we are losing them and thus at least 20 seconds of each powerplay! Zach Redmond could also help the powerplay and I think deserves to draw in the lineup next time out.
There have been some positives so far. All goalies have looked good to me, especially the kid Pickard who has been put into a tough spot. John Mitchell has been incredible in his two games in the lineup. Duchene was amazing tonight and was rewarded for his efforts. Mackinnon looked better tonight and will surely get it going soon.

All in all, the Avalanche have shown some signs of improvement over the past week but certainly have a ways to go! I believe they will get back on track and have faith but they need to start making things happen rather than expecting them to happen. We need to stop waiting for puck luck and creating it! They’ll figure it out but we fans are hoping it happens soon! Go Avs!

@poleary19

2014-2015 NHL Predictions: Christmas is Finally Here!

With the NHL season just a COUPLE HOURS AWAY, it’s time to lay down some predictions for the 2014-2015 NHL season. As usual there have been many changes since Alec Martinez put the puck past Hank Lundqvist to crown the Kings, but have there been enough changes to see them dethroned? Here are my 2014-2015 predictions for conference standings, legit Cup contenders, my Cup winner and season end award winners.

Western Conference Standings:
1. St. Louis (Central Division Winner)
2. Anaheim (Pacific Division Winner)
3. Chicago
4. Los Angeles
5. Colorado
6. Dallas
7. Minnesota
8. San Jose
9. Vancouver
10. Arizona
11. Nashville
12. Winnipeg
13. Calgary
14. Edmonton

Eastern Conference Standings:
1. Boston (Atlantic Division Winner)
2. Pittsburgh (Metropolitan Division Winner)
3. New York Rangers
4. Montreal
5. Tampa Bay
6. Columbus
7. Philadelphia
8. New York Islanders
9. Toronto
10. Ottawa
11. Detroit
12. New Jersey
13. Washington
14. Florida
15. Carolina
16. Buffalo

Only three teams who really have a chance in the West: Chicago, Los Angeles, and St.Louis

The East is WIDE OPEN and any of: Pittsburgh, Boston, Montreal, New York Rangers and Tampa Bay have a shot at making the CUP Finals.

The finals: Chicago vs. Pittsburgh

The Cup Champion: Chicago Blackhawks

Art Ross winner: Crosby
Rocket Richard winner: Stamkos
Hart Trophy winner: Tavares
Norris Trophy winner: Pietrangelo
Vezina Trophy winner: Carey Price
Jack Adams winner: Jack Capuano
Calder Trophy winner: John Gibson

First Coached fired: Dallas Eakins
First Coach hired: Dan Bylsma

Those are my thoughts! What are yours? Lets get er goin!!!!!

@poleary19

It’s all about the Logo on the front

 

*Before reading the article I want it to be known that Ryan O’Reilly is my favorite current Avalanche player*

Despite the signings and player movement in Colorado this summer, the biggest story continues to be about a player who remains unsigned. The Avalanche and Ryan O’Reilly will go to arbitration next week where a third party will ultimately determine the young forward’s salary for next year and perhaps the following one. I’m not going to get into all of the details of that process and the possible outcomes but if you have any questions in that regard I suggest you checkout Adrian Dater’s recent article on the Denver Post site which tells all you need to know on the process. What I am going to do is give an opinion on the saga, that is likely to result in a harsh ending for fans of this team.

First of all, Ryan O’Reilly brings so much to this team! He is a fantastic two way player, especially when you consider he is only 23 years old! This past season he played top line minutes, killed penalties, played on the power play and Coach Roy had faith in him in all situations. In saying that, is Ryan O’Reilly a household name? No. Is Ryan O’Reilly a superstar? No. Can Ryan O’Reilly become both of these things? I would say he could but I believe he’ll make a name for himself in this league as a fantastic two way player with decent offensive upside.

O’Reilly is coming off a season where he scored 28 goals and 64 points, both of which are solid numbers but both are also career highs. Was that just the beginning or is that just about as much as can be expected from him? I’m of the belief that O’Reilly will be at best a 30 goal/65 point guy in this league. I could be proven wrong but I am not a believer that he will ever be a point a game player. That doesn’t mean I don’t think he will be a very valuable component to whoever he plays for in the future. Any guy who can take almost zero penalties yet lead the league in takeaways and score 25 goals has a great deal of value; likely even 6 to 6.5 million dollars per season kind of value, but not following just one 28 goal season.

There is no better player comparison here than Patrice Bergeron. Like O’Reilly, Bergeron made the NHL as an 18 year old. In his 3rd and 4th professional seasons he actually eclipsed the 70 point plateau and at 20 years old he scored 31 goals. As good as Bergeron is; a Stanley Cup and two Olympic gold medals later, he hasn’t surpassed those totals since. Again, similar to O’Reilly, Bergeron is a great two way player and even has two Selke trophies to show for it. So how does he compare salary wise you ask? After his entry level contract he signed a 5 year deal with an average cap hit of 4.75 million. Then at age 25 he signed a 3 year, 15 million dollar deal. This year at 28 and a proven household name, he starts an 8 year deal with an average cap hit of 6.5 million. Yes, the same number that’s a starting point for an O’Reilly camp that can’t add a Cup, Olympic gold, Selke Trophy or even a 30 goal season to their argument.

I’m sure the Avalanche are thinking along the same lines. Patrick Roy loves him and I’m sure Joe Sakic is quite high on him too, but just as this game has a business side for players it has one for management. O’Reilly must make at least 5.525 million this upcoming season so I have to assume the Avalanche offered a long term contract right around that number. To me, that’s a fair offer but I would certainly understand if O’Reilly was not interested in a long term deal of that money but why not take the deal at 2 years and prove you’re worth the bigger money for the next contract? Both sides win there.

For anyone saying the Avalanche should just give in and do whatever it takes to lock him up long term, what does that tell everyone else? Remember that both Matt Duchene (basically a point per game guy) and Gabe Landeskog each had more points than O’Reilly this season and are both considered to have more offensive upside than O’Reilly moving forward. If you want to bring up the ‘intangibles’ argument, Landeskog is showing them at just 21 and Duchene showed his at the Olympics on a star studded team Canada.

Both Duchene and Landeskog signed deals which will pay them well and for awhile but will also allow the Avalanche cap flexibility to build a champion. One must remember that in just two summers Nate Mackinnon will be in line for a big payday considering he’s coming off a rookie season where he had just one point less than O’Reilly. Tyson Barrie may also join those guys as premier players on this team who make bigger money. If you throw O’Reilly exactly what he wants, how will that affect these future negotiations?

In three years time it’s great if Colorado has 6 or 7 star players all under contract but how much depth will there be from 8-20 with just 25 million dollars to go around? The model franchises in this league are Chicago and Los Angeles and it is because of their ability to work under the restraints of a salary cap. They know who to give the big bucks to and they know who to move out and how to replace them. The Avalanche are modeling themselves the same way and they are sticking to the plan. It’s a little scary as a fan but I know it’s the right thing to do. This isn’t 2002 anymore.

I know fans are very excited with what happened last season but we must remember that this is a process. I don’t believe the expectation is to win the cup this year or even the next year but the plan is to set the foundation for what will be a legit cup contender from year 3 to hopefully year 7 or 8! Joe and Patrick are smart enough not to swing for the fences today, they are willing to work the count and then go deep. I want Ryan O’Reilly to be part of this team for a long time to come but not at the expense of its long term success.

 

@poleary19