With the not so Super Bowl a thing of the past, next on the agenda for sports fans around the world is the Olympic Winter Games from Sochi, Russia set to kick off on Friday. Though many have a winter sport they like to keep tabs on over the two week showcase of world class athletes; I, like most Canadians will put 95% percent of my focus on defense of our 2010 Gold Medal in Men’s hockey! In reality, the other 5% is for the days leading up to the puck drop on Feb 12th! Today I will give a quick breakdown of the tournament format, a listing of the groups, the most important players and player to watch on each team, and my predictions on how things will play out!
THE FORMAT:
The format for this year’s Tournament is the same as that of 2010 in Vancouver. The group stage will consist of three groups containing four teams each. The winners of each group will automatically advance to the quarterfinals and a fourth bye will be given to the next best team in the group stage. The point system will give 3 points for a win in regulation, 2 points for an overtime or shootout win, 1 point for an overtime or shootout loss and 0 points for a regulation loss. With the top 4 teams receiving a bye to the quarters, the additional quarterfinal spots will be determined by the remainder of the field who will be ranked 5 to 12 with the higher seeds facing the lower seeds in an elimination game. This will determine the quarterfinal matchups and following a number of single elimination games, a gold medalist will be crowned. (*Note* this set-up will be made more clear following my predictions below)
THE GROUPS:
GROUP A: Group of DEATH!
Russia:
Most Important player: Alex Ovechkin: Leading the NHL in scoring by a long shot, Ovechkin is putting pucks in the net at a torrid pace again. Perhaps motivated over the last couple of years by the upcoming Games in his home country, Ovechkin will be leaned upon to be a leader for this team and if he doesn’t score it won’t fold well for the hosts!
Player to watch: Ilya Kovalchuk: He took his ball (or puck) and went home this summer! Already a seemingly forgotten name in North America, Kovalchuk knows we’ll be watching and he’ll want to remind us of what he can do. A motivated Kovalchuk playing in his home country on the big ice surface is a major concern for the 11 other nations.
Slovakia:
Most important player: Jaroslav Halak: With Slovakia sitting on the doorstep of the hockey power houses, it’ll take strong goaltending from Halak to help them pull off some one game winner take all upsets! He took the 2010 Canadiens to the Conference finals and led Slovakia to the Semi’s in that same year as well, so he can do it. For Slovakia to win a medal in 2014, he simply will have to!
Player to watch: Zdeno Chara: Big Z isn’t getting any younger and he will log HUGE (pun intended) minutes for this Slovakia blue line. As good as Chara is; his age, the bigger ice surface and of course the additional games may work against him. He slowed down in the Cup Finals last year against a team with great speed; will it happen in Sochi as well? If so, it won’t fold well for his team.
Slovenia:
Most important player: Anze Kopitar: Not much to say here; the only current NHLer on the roster will have to carry the team. Kopitar is an elite talent but he can’t play 60 minutes, he’ll do his best to create as many goals as possible.
Player to watch: Anze Kopitar: Making the Olympics is an accomplishment for Slovenia and they’ll look to build off this experience and perhaps learn what it takes to be a star from Kopitar along the way. He’ll make some great plays in the tournament.
United States of America:
Most Important player: Ryan Miller/Jonathon Quick: I have no idea which guy will start the big games but no matter who gets the role, they will have to be GREAT! The States blue line looks to be a little thin this year and considering some of the fire power in this tournament, if the Americans want to medal again, their goaltending will have to steal some games.
Player to watch: Phil Kessel: Leaf fans will love this but based on how hot he will be going into the tournament, it’s hard to not expect big things from him. Explosive speed on the big ice added to elite scoring ability makes Kessel the team’s top offensive threat. The pressure shouldn’t bother him either as its much less than what he faces in Toronto.
GROUP B
Austria:
Most important player: Thomas Vanek: Similar to Kopitar, Vanek is a star from a country with little NHL talent. Vanek will lead a team with just two other current NHLers and the offense will be expected to come through him. If it doesn’t, it could be a short (or long) tournament for Austria.
Player to watch: Michael Grabner: Unlike Kopitar, Vanek does have some help and Grabner would be the guy to bring it. He has incredible speed that will be showcased on the larger ice surface and most certainly cause even the best defenders trouble. Look for Grabner to burn some blue liners and be one of just a couple bright spots for this nation.
Canada:
Most important player: Sidney Crosby: Many people will have something to say about that pick but he’s the best player in the world and we’ll need him to be to repeat. If Crosby fails to produce it instantly puts pressure on all the other forwards, some of whom it would be the most pressure they’ve ever faced. Add in the off-ice distraction of a slumping Crosby and it could be terrible news for Canada.
Player to watch: Matt Duchene: Again, people might play the bias card here but I’ve had the privilege of watching the majority of Duchene’s games this year and the kid is amazing. His breakaway speed and agility are nearly unmatched in the NHL; he is strong with the puck and plays with heart. A lot more Canadians will be aware of Matt Duchene after Sochi!
Finland:
Most important player: Tuuka Rask: Seemingly, Finland always has a great selection of talent between the pipes and 2014 is no exception. Rask is one of the NHL’s elite and he must be if Finland will medal again in 2014. Rask has the ability to steal games; Canada and other nations best prepare to make his life difficult or he could hurt their chances of winning the Tournament.
Player to watch: Olli Maata/Sami Vatanen: A little off the charts here but we have two good, young, fast puck moving defensemen. With the depth of the Finnish blue line, these two young men will likely see a fair bit of ice, especially on the power play and might cause the world to take notice of the two future stars.
Norway:
Most important player: Mats Zuccarello: Similar to Vanek and Kopitar; albeit to a lesser extent, Zuccarello will be the key cog for the Norwegian offense. In somewhat of a breakout season, the 26 year old leads the Rangers in scoring and will look to lead his country on the big stage.
Player to watch: Patrick Thoresen: The name may sound familiar as Thoresen did spend time in the NHL and AHL. Most recently the speedy winger has been putting up good numbers in the KHL and will ride shotgun with Zuccarello to give a speedy tandem.
GROUP C
Czech Republic:
Most important player: Ondrej Pavelec: In 1998 the Czechs won a gold medal off the back off Dominik Hasek who allowed just two goals over the final four games of the tournament. With Hasek in the rearview mirror and Tomas Vokoun unable to play due to injury, Pavelec’s performance will be the deciding factor in how far the Czech’s go. With an aging forward group and less than stellar blue line, Pavelec will need to be sharp!
Player to watch: Jaromir Jagr: Yes, the 41 year old is still playing and even though the Czech’s have a few up and coming young stars, Jagr is still the one to watch in Sochi! The top scoring Czech player in the NHL is still something special to watch and will look to bow out of the Olympics with all eyes on him.
Latvia:
Most important player: Ted Nolan: Yea, I stretched the category a little here but Nolan’s coaching will be the deciding factor in whether the Latvians are competitive or handled with ease. The accomplishment for Latvia was getting here; for Nolan and company, keeping scores close will be satisfactory.
Player to watch: Zemgus Girjensons: The speedy young forward will be leaned upon heavily in the offensive zone. With Nolan also being his coach in the NHL, he’ll know when and how to use him responsibly while stressing the importance of soaking up the experience.
Switzerland:
Most important player: Jonas Hiller: The Swiss are always a dangerous team in a single elimination tournament and it’s always because of great goaltending and an opportunistic game. In 2006 they shut out Team Canada and in 2010 took them to a shootout. Hiller is one of the top goalies in the world and with him the Swiss are confident they can beat anyone on any given night.
Player to watch: Martin Pluss: The name may sound familiar because he’s been there for Switzerland time after time. 36 years old now; he may not be as fast as he once was but he still has the ability to play in any situation and his name will likely follow any Swiss goals in the box score.
Sweden:
Most important player: Henrik Lundqvist: Perhaps the best goaltender in the world; a gold medalist in 2006, Lundqvist will look to get the job done for Sweden again. With a strong team in front of him he may not be relied upon as heavily as some of the other goalies mentioned above, but if Sweden is to win gold, the King will have to be the King.
Player to watch: Erik Karlsson: The smooth skating, rover type defensemen will be a treat to watch on the big ice. The skilled players around him will take his game to an even higher level and opposing teams better think of a way to slow him down or he may just pick them a part!
PREDICTIONS:
Here’s how I see things playing out in Sochi:
Rankings after the round robin:
1. Sweden
2. Canada
3. Russia
4. Finland
5. United States
6. Switzerland
7. Slovakia
8. Czech Republic
9. Austria
10. Slovenia
11. Latvia
12. Norway
Qualification playoffs:
USA over Norway
Switzerland over Latvia
Slovakia over Slovenia
Czech Republic over Austria
QuarterFinals:
Sweden over Czech Republic
USA over Finland
Russia over Switzerland
Canada over Slovakia
Semi Finals:
Sweden over USA
Canada over Russia
Bronze Medal game:
Russia over USA
Gold Medal game:
Canada over Sweden!
Canada has the best team and the best team SHOULD win! Not always the case though and the team will need to click right away, get solid goaltending, and clutch scoring. Anything can happen in single elimination games so get ready to sit back and enjoy it! This could be the best caliber of hockey we’ll see for a long, long time.
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