In the words of broadcasting legend Robert Cole, ‘Ohh Babyyyy,’ what a playoffs these have been so far! We’ve pretty much seen it all through the first two rounds and we still have one game left before we move on to the Conference Finals. The quick turnaround from round one to round two prevented me from blogging my second round picks but here is an update on how I’ve done so far.
Round 1: 5 correct (Bruins, Habs, Rangers, Blackhawks, Ducks)
Round 2: 2 correct (Rangers, Blackhawks) *Have the Kings over the Ducks
Total: 7 right, 3 wrong, one to be determined and one no pick (AVS/WILD)
In a postseason this unpredictable, I’ll take that! Especially if the Kings can get the win at the pond tonight! That one should be a dandy! However, I’m going to jump ahead with a little breakdown of les Canadiens/Rangers series set to start Saturday at the Bell Centre! Lots of opinions out there on this one and here is mine:
First things first, aside from the fact the Canadiens have home ice, forget the regular season! It’s the Eastern Conference Finals and everything is on the table here. Make no mistake about it though, that home ice advantage is huge. The old saying goes ‘you’re not in trouble until you lose a game on home ice.’ If Montreal doesn’t lose on home ice in this series, they’ll be playing for the Stanley Cup. Home ice advantage means a little more to Montreal in the playoffs; maybe it’s the crowd, maybe it’s the amazing pregame festivities or maybe it’s the magical history of one of North America’s most storied franchises, there’s just something about playoff hockey in Montreal. No doubt Madison Square Garden is in a league of its own in terms of sporting venues but for hockey the Bell Centre reigns supreme. The Rangers will need to maintain their ability to win on the road and find a way to do it in a very hostile environment to have a chance here.
When you look at the two teams up front the biggest similarity thus far in these playoffs is a balanced attack. The Rangers have 11 forwards with at least one goal this postseason and the Canadiens have 10. On paper the Blue Shirts have more star power with St.Louis, Nash and Richards but each player has struggled with offensive consistency at times. In 7 games against oft criticized Penguins keeper Marc Andre Fleury the Rangers scored just 15 goals while the Canadiens scored 20 against Vezina candidate Tuuka Rask. Both teams are similarly gritty on the third and fourth lines and it will be interesting to see how each adjust coming out of series where they were the underdog. I suspect from top to bottom the compete level will be there for both teams but for either to win, certain players will need to shine through. For the Rangers, Marty St. Louis has become the inspirational leader and will need to continue to lead and contribute if the Rangers want to win. Also, the Rangers will not win this series if Rick Nash doesn’t find the net. He hasn’t showed up in the playoffs since entering the league and it is beginning to cast a shadow on his career. One good series here could leave the past in the past for Nash. For Montreal, Max Pacioretty will need to find a way to come up big as he did in games 6 and 7 of the Bruins series. The man who scored 39 goals in the regular season will need to find similar consistency in the playoffs for Montreal to take the next step. Likewise, the Habs will need Thomas Vanek to be more consistent in this series. He was brought in at the deadline to produce and while he has scored some big goals, the Habs would like to see it happen over a larger stretch. This series will be tight and if a player as offensively gifted as Vanek can produce consistently it may be the difference.
On the backend the Habs have the biggest game breaker in this series. PK Subban has been a force in these playoffs and is easily the most offensively gifted blue liner in the series. The Rangers will need to get in his head and minimize his time and space or he will make them pay. In their own end the Canadiens defense showed both toughness and durability against the Bruins and really didn’t wear down as the Bruins had hoped by the time it was all said and done. Guys like Josh Georges and Mike Weaver have been warriors and will lay it all on the line to come out on top. The Rangers have a great young top 3 in Staal, Mcdonagh, and Girardi. Though there have been some struggles for the latter two in these playoffs, they have eaten minutes against top tier players. Staal did a great job against Pittsburgh while Anton Stralman and Kevin Klein were both also logging near 20 minutes of quality hockey per game.
On the special teams the Habs seem to be at a distinct advantage! With Subban quarterbacking the PP the Habs are clicking at just over 26%. Beyond Subban, their power play has a good mixture of skill and grit which has been leading to power play goals at critical times. On the other side, the Rangers power play has not been good and one would have to assume Coach Vigneault will have spent time on that this week. Neither penalty kill has been great in these playoffs but based on Power play threat, the Habs should have the easier time here as well.
Between the pipes we have two world class goalies that will be very difficult to beat. Both will give their team the chance to win and will come up with big save after big save. It will be a series of garbage goals, whichever team works hardest to create traffic and get pucks through to the net will come out on top here. I give Price a slight, slight edge because he seems to be mentally zoned in right now and has that ‘championship swagger’.
When it comes to intangibles, there are a few they may impact the final result. You have to think about the St.Louis factor. His team has rallied around him since the sudden passing of his mother and sometimes that’s the sort of thing that can will a team to new heights. The emotion that this tragedy has captured in the New York dressing room may translate to more on ice success. You also have to wonder how Montreal will look coming off an emotional series with the Bruins. When the Habs and Bruins play it’s just different. Can the Habs channel that same emotion? That same hatred? That same demand for respect? It can be difficult to maintain that high following a win over a rival and the tempo hard to match. After taking down their biggest rivals they will need to focus on the task at hand, they must look at the Rangers the same way they looked at Boston and have that same chip on their shoulder. Another factor will of course be coaching. Which coach will be quickest to act and react? Both men have lost in game 7 of the Cup finals, both have since been fired and both have gained much experience. It’ll be interesting to see who makes the more appropriate adjustments. It is important to also factor in the Habs round one sweep of the Lightening because it gave them some extra time off. The Rangers have played in two series that went the distance so far and other than the couple of extra days before game one Saturday, they’ve had no down time since the regular season. Will that take a toll as this series drags on?
In the end, it’s a really tough series to call and I could see it going either way but I have to lean towards Montreal. Home ice is a huge factor here, as is the Hab’s far superior power play. There’s no room for offensive struggles in a series against Carey Price and I’m not convinced the Rangers will score enough goals to win. If the Canadiens can keep their compete level up against New York as they did against Boston, they’ll be heading to the Cup Finals.
Canadiens in 6!
@poleary19
O'Leary's Outlook 